Los Altos Hills Market Trends: 3 Years of Sales Data, Seasonality, and Timing Strategies

Los Altos Hills has been a high‑dollar, low‑velocity market over the last three years, with pronounced seasonality: sales volume and $/sf peak in spring, while late fall and early winter show softer pricing and longer marketing times. Time your real estate plans in Los Altos Hills to maximize your returns.

Big picture: three‑year overview

Over the past three years, monthly closed sales ranged from just 1 closing (very thin winter months) up to the mid‑teens in the busiest spring and late‑summer periods, underscoring how few homes trade in Los Altos Hills at any given time. Average price per square foot consistently sat in a luxury band, generally around the mid‑$1,000s/sf, with spikes above that range in select, high‑end months.

The data also shows modest average premiums or small discounts relative to list price in most months, reflecting a market where properly priced homes sell close to their asking price rather than wildly above or below. Days on market cluster in a broad band but compress sharply in the most competitive months, dropping to roughly one week on average at the peak of demand.

Seasonality: when the market moves

On a month‑by‑month view, the clearest pattern is that sales counts and $/sf both strengthen from late winter into late spring, then again in some mid‑summer months. Months like April 2023, July 2023, and spring 2025 combine higher sales counts, strong $/sf, and short DOM, signaling periods when motivated buyers are active and writing aggressive offers.

By contrast, several late‑fall and year‑end months show lower sales counts, softer or more volatile $/sf, and longer average DOM, indicating buyers have more leverage and sellers must be more patient. This cyclical rhythm—spring strength, fall softness—is especially important in a small market where a handful of sales can define the narrative for the quarter.

Pricing power: over‑ask and discounts

The monthly “Premium_vs_List” (average sale-to-list spread) highlights periods that favored sellers versus buyers. April 2023 posts the strongest positive premium in the data set, meaning the average closing price that month landed well above the list, backed by very short DOM and the highest average $/sf for the period.

Other months with meaningful positive premiums include portions of mid‑2023 and early 2025, again lining up with spring and early‑summer activity. Months with negative premiums when average sales closed below list price are more common in the second half of the year, indicating room for negotiation and price sensitivity once the spring wave passes.

Days on market: speed versus patience

Average DOM swings noticeably by month and is an effective proxy for market heat. In the strongest windows, such as April 2023, February 2025, and March 2025, homes went under contract in roughly a week on average, signaling prepped, correctly priced inventory being quickly absorbed.

In contrast, some late‑fall and winter months show much higher average DOM, often lasting several weeks to multiple months, often coinciding with slight discounts on list and more selective buyer behavior. For sellers, that divide translates into a tangible choice between aiming for speed and premium pricing in spring versus accepting a slower, more negotiable environment later in the year.

Strategic takeaways for buyers and sellers

For homeowners planning a sale, the last three years strongly support launching between late February and May to maximize both sale‑to‑list premium and probability of a quick, clean result. Aligning listing prep—repairs, staging, pricing, and media—with that window positions a Los Altos Hills home to reach the deepest pool of motivated buyers.

For buyers, the data suggests that late summer through late fall can offer better negotiating conditions: slightly lower $/sf on average, more days on market, and more frequent sub‑list outcomes. In a low‑inventory, high‑price hillside market, timing a purchase or sale around these seasonal edges can meaningfully change both the experience and the bottom‑line result.

If you are considering selling or buying a home in Los Altos Hills, contact me today for a data driven strategy to make it happen.